What does Trump reciprocal tariff means for India ?
- Swapnil Shah
- Apr 3
- 1 min read
Updated: Apr 3
1) Finally the much awaited Trump speech on Reciprocal Tariff is out, 26% imposed on India’s export to USA
2) Bit harsh for India, but that’s what he has done on 60 odd countries and even the smallest of countries with 30-40%-& even higher %
3) Pharma sector has been exempted from these tariff, but its only for now temporarily relief does not necessarily forever. The danger is just averted for now.
4) Major uncertainty is now behind us, I don’t think there will be major negatives news now onwards on tariffs.
5) Seeing Trump style of negotiations, he always wants to have upper hand as they being a big daddy of global economy and global consumption.
6) He would now want every country to come to him to sit & negotiate, eventually some mid-way will emerge with India also. We will negotiate and settle somewhere in between 10-20% , may be nearing 15%.
7) Even Donald Trump cannot afford to have US imports at such high tariff as that would mean inflation spiking there and reversal on inflation control efforts by them till now…
8) Rising inflation will have a negative impact on consumption, sales, inflation, interest rates & consumer sentiments. Trump also faces some midterm parliament elections in 2026, loosing majority is what he cannot afford.
9) Dollar index come up from 104.20 yesterday to 103 levels, weak dollar index is extremely good for Indian equity markets.
10) No country has officially announced any reciprocal tariff since this accouchements.
11) Now, this will be a real skill for our government to tackle this Trump madness and work out with some mid-path at the earliest.
"What's your call on India's response to Trump's 26% tariff on exports?"
1️⃣ Impose reciprocal tariffs on U.S. imports
2️⃣ Negotiate and settle for a lower tariff
3️⃣ Diversify exports to reduce U.S. dependence
4️⃣ Wait and watch how other countries react
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